The most important inflation report of the year arrives on Tuesday with a hole in it: for the first time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish no annual inflation rate, because the prices it needed to calculate one were never collected.
Key Points
- October CPI report November 10 — the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October’s Consumer Price Index at 8.30am Eastern on Tuesday.
- Economists expect prices to rise 0.3% on the month, with core prices up 0.2%, but there will be no year-over-year figure for most indexes.
- The gap exists because October 2025 prices were never collected during the 2025 government shutdown.
- The report is the last full read on consumer prices the Federal Reserve gets before its 8–9 December decision, with a hike priced at about 75–80%.
The forecasts are closely bunched. A Bloomberg survey expects headline CPI to rise 0.3% for the month after September’s 0.6%, and core CPI — which strips out food and energy — to rise 0.2%, the smallest gain in three months. The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast puts headline at 0.24% and core at 0.21%, while RBC Economics expects 0.3% for both and Bank of America projects 0.4% headline and 0.3% core.
September’s report was hot: headline CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, with energy up 5.2% and petrol up 9.1% in a single month. This time, UBS analysts estimate energy’s contribution to headline inflation may have dropped from 0.39 percentage points in September to just 0.04 — the main reason the monthly figure is expected to cool.
Why there is no annual number
The quirk comes from the 2025 government shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not collect CPI prices from 1 October to 12 November 2025, and it was unable to collect them retroactively. With no October 2025 base month to compare against, it will not publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where that data is missing — which is most of the index. Its tables will show a dash with the footnote “Data unavailable due to the 2025 lapse in appropriations”.
September’s 3.7% is therefore the last official annual rate until next month. The Cleveland Fed’s own nowcast, which estimates what October 2025 would have been, puts the annual rates at 3.74% headline and 2.48% core — but those are not official Bureau of Labor Statistics figures, and any yearly October rate quoted elsewhere should be treated with caution.
What it means for the Fed
Tuesday’s report is the last full read on consumer prices the Federal Open Market Committee gets before it votes on 8–9 December. Markets price a December hike at roughly three in four, after October payrolls came in at 165,000 — well above the consensus near 59,000 — with average hourly earnings up 0.4% on the month.
With no yearly number to lean on, Tuesday comes down to one monthly figure: core CPI. A soft core print is the bigger surprise risk for markets braced for a hike, while a hot one would lock it in. The November CPI report follows on 10 December — one day after the Fed announces its decision — which makes Tuesday’s print the number that matters.
For background on how the Fed sets borrowing costs, see our report on how the Federal Reserve affects interest rates, and on US inflation rising more than expected. More in our Business section.
Sources: Pip Theory, “No Annual Rate This Time, 0.24%–0.3% Expected (US CPI Preview, 10 November 2026)“; TradingKey, “US October CPI Preview: Inflation Growth May Slow“.