The FedExCup Playoffs move to Bellerive Country Club for the BMW Championship, where 50 golfers compete for a spot in the season finale.
The PGA TOUR’s FedExCup Playoffs reach a critical juncture this week as the field narrows to the top 50 players competing at the BMW Championship. Hosted at the historic Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri, this event serves as the final gateway to the TOUR Championship at East Lake. With only the top 30 in the standings moving on, the pressure on every stroke is immense. Bellerive, a challenging par-70 layout stretching 7,448 yards, is known for its bentgrass greens and has a prestigious history of hosting major championships, most notably the 2018 PGA Championship.
Because the course rewards elite driving and precise iron play, it has historically turned into a birdie-fest when conditions allow. While Scottie Scheffler remains the heavy favorite, the betting markets have shifted toward value plays in the “Winner without Scheffler” category. With rain forecasted for the St. Louis area, the course is expected to soften, potentially lowering the scoring threshold and favoring players who can capitalize on birdie opportunities throughout the four-day event.
Chris Gotterup enters the field with significant momentum, particularly on Midwest courses featuring bentgrass greens. His victory at the John Deere Classic earlier this season showcased his ability to adapt to similar conditions. Statistically, Gotterup is a standout in the field, ranking fifth in predictive models and second in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee over the last 24 rounds. Given his consistency—having made the cut in every major championship this season—his current odds appear to be an oversight compared to other players who have yet to secure a win this year.
Hideki Matsuyama also presents a compelling case for bettors this week. Despite his odds being longer than expected, his recent form is undeniable, characterized better percentage, a vital metric for a course that will likely become more receptive due to incoming weather. While his short-game statistics have fluctuated, his elite ball-striking ability suggests he is well-positioned to contend at Bellerive as long as he maintains his accuracy off the tee.
Collin Morikawa is another player whose current market price warrants attention. Despite a disappointing outing at the St. Jude, his track record on driver-heavy, difficult courses remains elite. Morikawa leads the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach and maintains high driving accuracy, making him a threat on almost any layout. Furthermore, bentgrass is statistically his most comfortable putting surface, an advantage that could prove decisive on Bellerive’s complex green structures.
Finally, Michael Thorbjornsen continues to draw significant interest from sharp bettors. The 2024 PGA TOUR University valedictorian recently secured his first professional victory at a driver-heavy course with similar grass types. His performance data shows gains across all major disciplines—driving, approach, and short game—over the last few months. As he begins to meet the high expectations set at the start of his career, Thorbjornsen’s fit for Bellerive’s specific demands makes him a high-upside play for those looking to round out their betting cards for the weekend.