Investors are pressing Anthropic to cut the valuation of its blockbuster stock market debut, telling the artificial intelligence company and its bankers that $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion is a fair price for its initial public offering — well below the roughly $2 trillion figure that had circulated for months.
Key Points
- Institutional investors say $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion is fair value for Anthropic’s IPO, down from talk of $2 trillion.
- The Wall Street Journal reported that at least three major investors believe a cut is needed; one suggested a figure closer to $1 trillion.
- Anthropic has not settled on a valuation, price range or share count; a roadshow could start the week of November 9.
- The company disclosed about $895 billion in computing purchase commitments and leases.
The pushback followed a sharp sell-off in technology stocks, with the Nasdaq plunging 5.5% on Thursday on fears of tougher AI regulation after the Democrats’ midterm sweep. According to the Wall Street Journal, three major investors planning to participate in the offering believe Anthropic will probably need to reduce its valuation, and one suggested the company could be worth closer to $1 trillion. Reuters had earlier reported that some investors were already pointing towards $1.5 trillion after the company’s investor day in October. The offering itself could also shrink: Anthropic may seek around $80 billion rather than the previously anticipated $100 billion.
What the filing shows
Anthropic filed its prospectus publicly on October 26 and amended it on November 2. It plans to list Class A shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading a group of 22 underwriters. The reported schedule is tight: a roadshow could start the week of November 9, with trading possible as early as the week of November 16, just before Thanksgiving. Bloomberg has reported that if the November window closes, Anthropic still expects to go public before the end of 2026.
The numbers in the filing give buyers room to push back. First-half 2026 revenue was $16.3 billion, up from about $1.1 billion a year earlier, and third-quarter revenue reached $17 billion, up 47% from the second quarter — but the headline net loss for the first half was $80.7 billion. The company has also disclosed about $895 billion in purchase commitments and leases for computing power, chips and other infrastructure, with close to $450 billion due before the end of 2030. Michael Burry, the investor known for his bets against the US housing market before the 2008 financial crisis, has expressed reservations about participating, and NYU professor Aswath Damodaran trimmed his equity value estimate for Anthropic to $1.45 trillion.
What happens next
Anthropic has not settled on a valuation target or on how many shares it will sell, and no final price, share count or listing date has been confirmed. The roadshow next week will be the first real test of whether investors will fund one of the largest computing bills in corporate history at a price the company can accept. For the revenue surge behind the listing, see our report on Anthropic’s revenue jumping over 1,100% as the AI giant nears its blockbuster IPO, and for the wider AI spending doubts, Microsoft walking away from its multibillion-dollar Nscale AI deal. More in our Business section.
Sources: Invezz, “Anthropic IPO faces test after recent selloff: What Wall Street experts are saying”; Ultima Markets, “Anthropic IPO: Is ANT Stock a Buy at Launch?”.