A surge in Ethiopian military conflict and a rise in lethal violence against environmental activists in Latin America are signaling a period of extreme global instability.
A fragile peace has collapsed in Ethiopia as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) declared a state of full-blown war, initiating a significant escalation across three regions. Simultaneously, a separate crisis is unfolding in Latin America, where the fight for environmental preservation has turned increasingly lethal, with the region remaining the world's most dangerous territory for land defenders and activists.
These two developments highlight vastly different, yet equally pressing, humanitarian challenges. In Ethiopia, the breakdown of the 2022 peace agreement has reignited old political grievances, threatening the stability of the Horn of Africa. Meanwhile, in South and Central America, the struggle against illegal mining and resource exploitation has resulted in dozens of targeted killings, underscoring a systemic pattern of violence against those protecting indigenous lands.
The convergence of these events illustrates the profound fragility of international stability in 2026. Ethiopia’s internal conflict threatens to undo years of recovery, potentially mirroring the mass displacement crises of 2021, when the country recorded 5.1 million displaced individuals in a single year. The ability—or inability—of the state to maintain order in northern regions serves as a litmus test for the durability of its existing peace frameworks. Conversely, the violence against environmental activists in the Americas is not merely a regional issue but a reflection of the global struggle for natural resource control. When indigenous guards and local farmers are systematically targeted at environmental degradation.
The conflict in Ethiopia has evolved into a multi-front engagement involving the TPLF and various opposition alliances. After four years of tentative stability following the 2022 peace deal, both government forces and rebel factions have accused one another of violating the terms of the original accord. The formation of a new opposition coalition, which openly seeks to challenge the leadership in Addis Ababa, has signaled a shift from localized skirmishes to a broader effort to restructure the government.
This renewed aggression marks the most significant military escalation since the initial civil war period. With fighting active in three distinct regions, the humanitarian consequences could be dire. While past displacements have reached millions, analysts remain concerned that the current breakdown could trigger secondary waves of migration if the conflict continues to draw in diverse ethnic militias and state forces.
While state-level conflicts dominate news from the Horn of Africa, a different form of violence is claiming lives across the Americas. According to findings from Global Witness, Latin America remains the global epicenter for the killings of environmental activists. Of the 124 documented global deaths in 2025, 39 occurred in Colombia and 26 in Brazil. The data indicates that 85% of all such killings worldwide occur within this region.
The targets of this violence are frequently indigenous group members and small-scale farmers caught in disputes over land and resources. In Colombia, the situation is exacerbated or unauthorized mining operations. Despite the efforts of unarmed indigenous protection groups to patrol their ancestral lands, targeted assassinations remain prevalent. The death of Jacob Guachetá Zambrano, an indigenous guard in the Cauca region, serves as a recent example of the dangers faced
The outlook for Ethiopia remains volatile. Because both the government and the TPLF claim the other has breached the 2022 agreement, there is no immediate path to a ceasefire. Diplomatic efforts will likely focus on de-escalation, but the presence of a new opposition coalition suggests that the conflict is no longer confined to the original signatories of the peace deal. In Latin America, the trend of violence against environmentalists is expected to persist as long as illegal mining and coca cultivation remain highly lucrative. Without increased state intervention to protect indigenous guards and prosecute the perpetrators of these land-based killings, the cycle of violence is likely to continue unabated.
