President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi plans to leave office in 2030, but experts worry he is setting up a permanent military-led political system.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi recently announced his plan to leave office in 2030. He spoke at a military graduation ceremony. He promised he would not change the constitution to stay longer.
Also, many observers feel surprised by this sudden declaration. Some experts believe he wants to gather support for a fourth term. Others think he aims to stop a military coup against him.
However, leaving power poses major risks for any authoritarian leader. A future government might blame him for the country's current economic struggles. He could even face legal action for past events.
Then, critics point to his 2013 rise to power. He led a coup against the nation's first elected president. His time in office saw many political arrests and mass protests.
Meanwhile, the national economy faces deep trouble. Egypt holds heavy debt and high inflation. The currency lost most of its value compared to the dollar.
Still, history suggests el-Sisi might change his mind. He previously promised not to run for president before doing so anyway. He also helped change the law to extend term limits.
After that, rumors surfaced about a "popular call" for him to stay. This could be a way to keep him in power. It mirrors tactics used by past leaders to maintain control.
Next, the military might want to remove him to itself. It could use him as a scapegoat for public anger. This would protect the army's own economic interests.
Finally, el-Sisi may plan to ensure the military stays in charge after he leaves. He highlighted constitutional rules that give the army a permanent role in politics. He wants to train new leaders at a military school.
As a result, these trained officials would likely protect the current system. This process ensures the military keeps power regardless of who wins elections. The Egyptian public remains frustrated with this managed political future.